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Left Brain, Right Stuff takes up where other books about decision making leave off. For many routine choices, from shopping to investing, we can make good decisions simply by avoiding common errors, such as searching only for confirming information or avoiding the hindsight bias. But as Phil Rosenzweig shows, for many of the most important, more complex situations we face―in business, sports, politics, and more―a different way of thinking is required. Leaders must possess the ability to shape opinions, inspire followers, manage risk, and outmaneuver and outperform rivals.
Making winning decisions calls for a combination of skills: clear analysis and calculation―left brain―as well as the willingness to push boundaries and take bold action― right stuff. Of course leaders need to understand the dynamics of competition, to anticipate rival moves, to draw on the power of statistical analysis, and to be aware of common decision errors―all features of left brain thinking. But to achieve the unprecedented in real-world situations, much more is needed. Leaders also need the right stuff. In business, they have to devise plans and inspire followers for successful execution; in politics, they must mobilize popular support for a chosen program; in the military, commanders need to commit to a battle strategy and lead their troops; and in start-ups, entrepreneurs must manage risk when success is uncertain. In every case, success calls for action as well as analysis, and for courage as well as calculation.
Always entertaining, often surprising, and immensely practical, Left Brain, Right Stuff draws on a wealth of examples in order to propose a new paradigm for decision making in synch with the way we have to operate in the real world. Rosenzweig’s smart and perceptive analysis of research provides fresh, and often surprising, insights on topics such as confidence and overconfidence, the uses and limits of decision models, the illusion of control, expert performance and deliberate practice, competitive bidding and new venture management, and the true nature of leadership.
- Sales Rank: #4247806 in Books
- Published on: 2014-12-30
- Formats: Audiobook, MP3 Audio, Unabridged
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 6.75" h x .50" w x 5.25" l,
- Running time: 9 Hours
- Binding: MP3 CD
Review
“Rosenzweig challenges the reader to contemplate the context of real-world decisions… [his] storytelling is fascinating.” — Huffington Post
“[This] reads like a call to action for social-science researchers, imploring them to expand their scope and refine their methodology so that their conclusions will be more pertinent to the thorny choices faced by corporate leaders. Surely Mr. Rosenzweig is onto something here: Researchers need to venture outside the lab and observe the real-world expression of the phenomena they are dissecting.” — Wall Street Journal
“Rosenzweig offers a different slant on how successful businessmen and other leaders assess risk… A provocative reconsideration of the power of positive thinking.” — Kirkus Reviews
“Rosenzweig’s advice is sound and his prose is highly readable.” —Publishers Weekly
“With compelling accounts and research results, Phil Rosenzweig takes us through the world of big, strategic decisions. They are thorny, complex, and risky, and he shows that they require analytic thinking, intuitive judgment, and personal confidence without certitude. Left Brain, Right Stuff delivers an invaluable framework for making good and timely decisions by all who sit in a leadership chair.” — Michael Useem, director of the Wharton Leadership Center, University of Pennsylvania, and co-author of Boards That Lead
“No one thinks as clearly—and writes as clearly—as Phil Rosenzweig does about the diagnostic challenges of assessing the quality of business judgment and about the prescriptive challenges of improving it.” — Philip E. Tetlock, Annenberg University Professor, University of Pennsylvania, author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
“Left Brain, Right Stuff intrigued me on a number of levels. By parsing strategic situations, Rosenzweig convinces us that we control more than we think we do. When we believe in ourselves, we increase the probability of a great outcome. Then add in an understanding of ‘winner take all’ competition and the need to assess relative performance (not absolute performance), and my eyes were opened wide.” — Joanna Barsh, director emeritus, McKinsey and Co.
“Left Brain, Right Stuff will help (force) you to rethink what you thought you knew about behavior and decision making. It will show you how to avoid the traps that have been set by some very popular (and dangerously erroneous) writings on the topic. This book will surprise you, it will challenge your (and your colleagues’) thinking in a very productive way, and it will be fun to read. Read it twice: once for the enjoyment of it, and once for pragmatic applications. It is certain to provoke the right kinds of discussions within your management team, and to raise your organization’s hit rate for effective decision making.” —Adrian J. Slywotzky, partner, Oliver Wyman, co-author of The Profit Zone, and author of Demand
“This fine book argues that the accepted tenets of behavioral economics are inadequate when dealing with strategic decisions in which the players can influence the outcome. The gripping stories neatly reveal the true complexity that is not captured in laboratory experiments, and put a needed reality check on the standard dogma of decision making. Essential reading.” —David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, Cambridge University
About the Author
Phil Rosenzweig is professor at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland, where he works with leading companies on questions of strategy and organization. He is a native of Northern California, where he worked for Hewlett-Packard. Prior to IMD, he was an assistant professor at Harvard Business School. Rosenzweig’s PhD is from the Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of numerous articles in journals including Harvard Business Review, California Management Review, Management Science, and Strategic Management Journal. His 2007 book, The Halo Effect . . . and the Eight Other Business Delusions that Deceive Managers, was described by the Wall Street Journal as “a trenchant view of business and business advice” and lauded by Nassim Nicholas Taleb as “one of the most important management books of all time.”
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
One the people I admire most, the physicist Richard Feynman, once gave a lecture about science and religion in society. Feynman was no believer in miracles or divine intervention, but he saw no value in telling other people what they should believe. More important was that they think for themselves and learn to ask questions. Speaking about the holy site of Lourdes in southwestern France, where in 1858 a young girl claimed to see an apparition of the Virgin Mary, and which now attracts millions of pilgrims every year, Feynman observed: “It might be true that you can be cured by the miracle of Lourdes. But if it is true then it ought to be investigated. Why? To improve it.”
We might ask whether a person has to enter the grotto at Lourdes to get the full effect of its healing powers, or whether it’s good enough to come close. If so, how close is close enough? Is the healing effect is as strong in the back row as it is in the first row? Is it good enough for a few drops of the spring water to be sprinkled on your forehead, or do you have to immerse yourself to get the full effect? Feynman concluded: “You may laugh, but if you believe in the power of the healing, then you are responsible to investigate it, to improve its efficiency.”
The same goes for decision-making. Research has made impressive contributions to many fields, but hasn’t yet captured the essence of many real-world decisions. Our duty is to ask questions: How do decisions vary? What makes complex decisions different from the simple choices so often portrayed in experiments? The goal is to take the next step beyond what has become conventional wisdom—that people are prone to errors and biases—and to help you learn the keys to making great decisions.
Most helpful customer reviews
13 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Understanding Decision-Making Better in a Competitive Setting!
By O. Halabieh
I recently finished reading Left Brain Right Stuff - How Leaders Make Winning Decisions by Phil Rosenzweig. The author had graciously provided me with a copy of his new book, as I had previously read and reviewed an earlier work of his (The Halo Effect).
Below are key excerpts from the book that I found particularly insightful:
1- "They make predictable errors, or biases, which often undermine their decisions. By now we're familiar with many of these errors, including the following: -People are said to be overconfident, too sure of themselves and unrealistically optimistic about the future. -People look for information that will confirm what they want to believe, rather than seeking information that might challenge their hopes. -People labor under the illusion of control, imagining they have more influence over events than they really do. -People are fooled by random events, seeing patterns where none exist. People are not good intuitive statisticians, preferring a coherent picture to what makes sense according to the laws of probability. -People suffer from a hindsight bias, believing that they were right all along."
2- "Yet for all we know about these sorts of decisions, we know less about others. First, many decisions involve much more than choosing from options we cannot influence or evaluations of things we cannot affect...Second, many decisions have a competitive dimension...Third, many decisions take a long time before we know the results...Fourth, many decisions are made by leaders of organizations...In sum, experiments have been very effective to isolate the processes of judgment and choice, but we should be careful when applying their findings to very different circumstances."
3- "Great decisions call for clear analysis and dispassionate reasoning. Using the left brain means: -knowing the difference between what we can control and what we cannot, between action and prediction -knowing the difference between absolute and relative performance, between times when we need to do well and when we must do better than others -sensing whether it's better to err on the side a' taking action and failing, or better not to act; that is, between what we call Type I and Type II errors -determining whether we are acting as lone individuals or as leaders in an organizational setting and inspiring others to achieve high performance -recognizing when models can help us make better decisions, but also being aware of their limits."
4- "Having the right stuff means: -summoning high levels of confidence, even levels that might seem excessive, but that are useful to achieve high performance -going beyond past performance and pushing the envelope to seek levels that are unprecedented -instilling in others the willingness to take appropriate risks."
5- "Moore and his colleagues ran several other versions of this study, all of which pointed to the same conclusion: people do not consistently overestimate their level of control. A simpler explanation is that people have an imperfect understanding of how much control they can exert. When control is low they tend to overestimate. but when it's high they tend to underestimate."
6- "Of course managers don't have complete control over outcomes. any more than a doctor has total control over patient health. They are buffeted by events outside their control: macroeconomic factors, changes in technology, actions of rivals, and so forth. Yet it's a mistake to conclude that managers suffer from a pervasive illusion of control. The greater danger is the opposite: that they will underestimate the extent of control they truly have."
7- "If you believe there's an intense pressure to outperform rivals when that's not the case, you might prefer a Type 1 error. You might take action sooner than necessary or act more aggressively when the better approach would be to wait and observe. The risks can be considerable, but perhaps not fatal On the other hand, if performance is not only relative but payoffs are highly skewed, and you don't make every effort to outperform rivals, you'll make a Type II error. Here the consequences can be much more severe. Fail now, and you may never get another chance to succeed. By this logic, the greater error is to underestimate the intensity of competition. It's to be too passive in the face of what could be a mortal threat. When in doubt, the smart move is to err on the side of taking strong action."
8- "The lesson is clear: in a competitive setting, even a modest improvement in absolute performance can have a huge impact on relative performance. And conversely, failing to use all possible advantages to improve absolute performance has a crippling effect on the likelihood of winning. Under these circumstances, finding a way to do better isn't just nice to have. For all intents and purposes, it's essential."
9- "First, not even thing that turns out badly is due to an error. We live in a world of uncertainty, in which there's an imperfect link between actions and outcomes. Even good decisions sometimes turn out badly, but that doesn't necessarily mean anyone made an error. Second, not every error is the result of overconfidence. There are many kinds off error: errors of calculation, errors of memory, simple motor errors, tactical errors, and so forth. They're not all due to overconfidence."
10- "The Trouble with Overconfidence," the single word—overconfidence—has been used to mean three very different things, which they call overprecision, overestimation, and overplacement...Overprecision is the tendency to be too certain that our judgment is correct...He's referring to overprecision: the tendency to believe a prediction is more accurate than it turns out to be...Overestimation, the second kind of overconfidence, is a belief that we can perform at a level beyond what is objectively warranted...Overestimation is an absolute evaluation; it depends on an assessment of ourselves and no one else...Overplacement, the third kind of overconfidence, is a belief that we can perform better than others...She calls it the superiority bias and says it's a pervasive error."
11- "My suggestion is that anyone who uses the term should have to specify the point of comparison. If overconfidence means excessively confident, then excessive compared to what? In much of our lives, where we can exert control and influence outcomes, what seems to be an exaggerated level of confidence may be useful; and when we add the need to outperform rivals, such a level of confidence may even be essential."
12- "When we have ability to shape events we confront a different challenge: making accurate estimates of future performance. The danger here is not one of overlooking the base rate of the broader population at a point in time, but neglecting lessons of the past and making a poor prediction of the future. Very often people place great importance on their (exaggerated) level of skills and motivation. The result is to make forecasts on what Kahneman and Tversky call the inside view. Unfortunately these projections, which ignore the experiences of others who have attempted similar tasks, often turn out to be wildly optimistic."
13-"The question we often hear—how much optimism or confidence is good, and how much is too much—turns out to be incomplete. There's no reason to imagine that optimism or confidence must remain steady over time. It's better to ramp it up and down, emphasizing a high level of confidence during moments of implementation, but setting it aside to learn from feedback and find ways to do better."
14- "Duration is short, feedback is immediate and clear, the order is sequential, and performance is absolute. When these conditions hold, deliberate practice can be hugely powerful. As we relax each of them, the picture changes. Other tasks are long in duration, have feedback that is slow or incomplete, must be undertaken concurrently, and involve performance that is relative. None of this is meant to suggest their deliberate practice isn't a valuable technique. But we have to know when it's useful and when it's not."
15- "When we use models without a clear understanding of when they are appropriate, we're not going to make great decisions—no matter how big the data set or how sophisticated the model appears to be."
16- "To get at the root of the problem, Capen looked at the auction process itself. He discovered an insidious dynamic: when a large number of bidders place secret bids, it's almost inevitable that the winning bid will be too high. Capen called this the winner's curse."
17- "But do some kinds of acquisitions have a greater chance of success than others? A significant number—the other 36 percent were profitable, and they turned out to have a few things in common. The buyer could identify clear and immediate gains. rather than pursuing vague or distant benefits. Also, the gains they expected came from cost savings rather than revenue growth. That's a crucial distinction, because costs are largely within our control, whereas revenues depend on customer behavior, which is typically beyond our direct control."
18- "The real curse is to apply lessons blindly, without understanding how decisions differ. When we can exert control, when we must outperform rivals, when there are vital strategic considerations, the greater real danger is to fail to make a bold move. Acquisitions ah ways involve uncertainty, and risks are often considerable. There's no formula to avoid the chance of losses. Wisdom calls for combining clear and detached thinking—properties of the left brain—with the willingness to take bold action—the hallmark of the right stuff."
19- "Starting a new business involves many of the same elements we have seen in other winning decisions: an ability to distinguish between what we can control and what we cannot; a sense of relative performance and the need to do better than rivals; the temporal dimension, in which decisions do not always produce immediate feedback; and an awareness that decisions are made in a social context, in which leaders sometimes need to inspire others to go beyond what may seem possible. Together, these elements help new ventures get off to a winning start."
20- "To make great decisions, we need above all to develop the capacity to question, to go beyond first-order observations and pose incisive second-order questions. An awareness of common errors and cognitive biases is only a start. Beyond that, we should ask: Are we making a decision about something we cannot control, or are we able to influence outcomes?...Are we seeking an absolute level of performance, or is performance relative?...Are we making, a decision that lends itself to rapid feedback, so we can make adjustments and improve a next effort?...Are we making a decision as an individual or as a leader in a social setting?...Are we clear what we mean by overconfidence?...Have we given careful thought to base rates, whether of the larger population at a point in time or historical rates of past events?...As for decision models, are we aware of their limits as well as strengths?...When the best course of action remains uncertain, do we have a sense of on which side we should err?"
21- "In his profile of longtime St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, Buzz Bissinger wrote that a baseball manager requires "the combination of skills essential to the trade: part tactician, part psychologist, part river-boat gambler." That's a good description for many kinds of strategic decision makers. The tactician plays a competitive game, anticipating the way a given move may lead to a counter-move and planning the best response. The psychologist knows how to shape outcomes by inspiring others, perhaps by setting goals or by offering encouragement or maybe with direct criticism. The riverboat gambler knows that outcomes aren't just a matter of cold numbers and probabilities, but that it's important matter of cold numbers and probabilities, but that it's important to read an opponent so as to know when to raise the stakes, when to bluff, and when to fold. Winning decisions call for a combination of skills as well as the ability to shift among them. We may need to act first as a psychologist, then as a tactician, next as a riverboat gambler, and perhaps once again as a psychologist. In the real world, where we have to respond to challenges as they arise, one skill or another is insufficient; versatility is crucial. Even then success is never assured, not in the competitive arenas of business or sports or politics. Performance is often relative and consequences of failure are harsh. A better understanding of decision-making, however, and an appreciation for the role of analysis as well as action, can improve the odds of success. It can help us win."
10 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
The giant-slayer slays again
By B. Gilad
Phil Rosenzweig is a giant-slayer in the great old tradition. As everyone and his cousin jumps on the wagon of popular gurus, he takes a sharp counterintuitive approach and mercilessly exposes weaknesses, unfounded assumptions and sloppy reasoning. In The Halo Effect he did it admirably to Jim Collins and McKinsey. In his new book, Left Brain, Right Stuff, he takes on behavioral economics, decision-biases research, and the popular theme of the irrational man.
His basic argument is persuasive: experiments showing cognitive biases and irrational judgments apply only to particular situations- everything is held constant but one variable and subjects have no influence over outcomes. In real strategic decisions, he claims, none of this is true. Real strategic decisions have no fixed or random outcomes like, say, gambles, have a long time dimension, and involve considerations of relative (to competitors) performance, a theme he highlighted in his earlier book as well.
According to Rosenzweig, people who undertake strategic decisions – executives and entrepreneurs – need left-brain analysis but also the willingness to take on risks. They need confidence even when others hesitate. For those decisions, Rosenzweig asks, how do we know if they were made correctly and how can we help the decision maker make better ones? Most popular books on the subject analyze ex-post outcomes and deduce backward. If the outcome is bad, the executive is typically blamed for “overconfidence”. But judging based on outcomes suffers from the halo effect. So we need to explore decisions ex ante. Besides, asks Rosenzweig, overconfident compared to what?
His exploration of strategic decisions is fascinating, though not all his points have the same powerful appeal as the delusions described in The Halo Effect. For one, it can be claimed that confidence should always be measured against the available information at the time (so-called early warning signals) plus careful exploration of alternatives (the Otherwise question popularized by Mark Chussil). Executives and politicians constantly engage in distortion of information, not just biased judgment, so blind spots leading to unwarranted confidence are real.
The best part of the book is Rosenzweig’s case studies of big, real decisions by real executives. They read like a good thriller. His conclusion that if you believe in your success even against big odds you raise your chance of success (so-called positive thinking) is not new but his approach, using Type I error and Type II error, to justify this is fresh.
Rosenzweig reminds us that those who are confident even in excess and are therefore willing to take calculated risks benefit society as a whole. Without risks and a bias towards action, there is no progress. This is an important analysis of strategic decisions in the private sector, where influence over outcomes is based on free choice by customers. His extension of this reasoning to government and presidents is much weaker, as he does not explore the difference between influence over outcomes through better performance than rivals and control over outcomes through the threat of force. In the eyes of many, the latter puts the whole notion of “progress” in question.
Overall, though, this is an important book on how strategic decisions are actually made in the real world. Every manager should read it.
7 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Why understanding the decision making process as well as the roles of action and analysis "can improve the odds of success"
By Robert Morris
As I began to read this book, I was again reminded of passages in two others in which their authors address the same question that Phil Rosenzweig does: How to make better decisions? In Judgment (2009), Noel Tichy and Warren Bennis assert that what really matters "is not how many calls a leader gets right, or even what percentage of calls a leader gets right. Rather it is important how many of the important ones he or she gets right." They go on to suggest that effective leaders "not only make better calls, but they are able to discern the really important ones and get a higher percentage of them right. They are better at a whole process that runs from seeing the need for a call, to framing issues, to figuring out what is critical, to mobilizing and energizing the troops."
More recently, in Judgment Calls (2012), Tom Davenport and Brook Manville explain how and why decisions made by a Great Organization tend to be much better than those made by a Great Leader. Why? While conducting rigorous and extensive research over a period of many years, they discovered -- as Laurence Prusak notes in the Foreword -- "that no one was looking into the workings of what we term [begin italics] organizational judgment [end italics] -- the collective capacity to make good calls and wise moves when the need for them exceeds the scope of any single leader's direct control."
My own opinion is that this process resembles a crucible of intensive scrutiny by several well-qualified persons. Moreover, the eventual decision is the result of what Roger Martin characterizes, in The Opposable Mind (2009), as "integrative thinking." That is, each of those involved has "the predisposition and the capacity to hold two [or more] diametrically opposed ideas" in mind and then "without panicking or simply settling for one alternative or the other," helps to "produce a synthesis that is superior to either opposing idea."
Rosenzweig asserts -- and I agree -- that what he calls "winning decisions" combine two very different skills. He calls them left brain and right stuff. "Left brain is shorthand for a deliberate and analytical approach to problems solving," a process that inevitably involves asking the right questions and then answering them correctly. Otherwise, there is the very serious danger to which Peter Drucker referred decades ago: "There is surely nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency what should not be done at all."
"Great decisions also demand a willingness to take risks, to push boundaries and to go beyond what has been done before. They call for something we call the right stuff." That means "summoning high levels of confidence, even levels that might seem excessive, but that are useful to achieve high performance." Left brain and right stuff may seem like opposites "but they're complementary. For many decisions they're both essential...Great decisions call for a capacity for considered and careful reasoning, and also a willingness to take outsize risks."
These are among the dozens of business subjects and issues of special interest and value to me, also listed to indicate the scope of Rosenzweig's coverage.
o The Key to great decisions: Left Brain, Right Stuff (Pages 15-22)
o Control issues (23-44)
o Performance: Absolute and Relative (45-62)
o Overconfidence in the here and now: Not one thing but three (88-93)
o Barriers of nature or barriers of engineering? (118-121)
o Apollo missions (149-154)
o Authenticity, reconsidered (154-158)
o Decision models (165-190)
o The Texas size shoot-out for AT&T Wireless (206-213)
o Cloud computing/VMware (224-229)
o Managing risks, seeking rewards (229-233)
o Another look at laboratory evidence (234-237)
o Beyond rational and irrational (244-247)
With regard to "Better questions for winning decisions" (247-252), Rosenzweig asserts, "To make great decisions, we need above all to develop the capacity to question, to go beyond the first-order observations and pose incisive second-order questions. An awareness of common errors and cognitive biases is only a start." He poses seven lead questions that have been previously stated or at least implied throughout his lively and eloquent narrative, accompanied by a few others that will also help us to drill down past symptoms, assumptions, biases, etc. so that we can identify root causes. This is a process of both elimination and simplification, one that is much easier to describe than it is to conduct just as questions such as "Are we making a decision about something we cannot control, or are we able to influence outcomes?" are much easier to ask than to answer.
Long ago, Voltaire suggested that we cherish those who seek the truth but beware of those who find it. Phil Rosenzweig is among those who tenaciously seek the truth but seldom (if ever) claim to have found it. With all due respect to recent research in neuroscience, there is still much to be learned about how to make better decisions. In this book, however, the information, insights, and counsel provided increase our understanding of how not to.
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